There aren't too many things as exciting as getting the next Kurzweil book delivered. His latest, THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR, arrived today (along with BOBBY FISCHER TEACHES CHESS).
I'm one of those people who is convinced that the chances of The Singularity occurring in the next 50 years is highly probable. I've been reading singularity-related material for about ten years and in all that time I'm yet to hear an intelligent argument against it. Sure - Moore's Law could, feasibly, collapse. But there are no signs of that happening anytime soon. Sure - we could turn back the clock and stop technological advancements - but I can't see any signs of that happening either. Sure - it's possible that really REALLY fast processing capability will not allow machines to achieve practical sentience or any kind of useful AI. But what we know about the neuro-architecture of the human brain today seems to suggest that it isn't really all that efficient. Carbon-based electro-chemical communication architectures aren't as efficient as silicon-based copies. Human neurons operate by sending electrochemical signals that propagate at a top speed of 150 meters per second along the fastest neurons. By comparison, the speed of light is 300,000,000 meters per second, two million times greater. And quantum architectures take us into a whole other ballgame.
The only way I can see us not achieving a singularity within the next 50 years is some kind of a MAJOR global conflict that sets the entire human race back 500 years. And that's highly possible.
If you're not aware of what The Singularity is, go read this.
I know Belinda, I'm not supposed to buy books before my birthday, but... y'know. I ordered them from Amazon WEEKS ago. Really.
OK, I'm off to the blood bank for my regular draining....
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