This is my reply to an email I got this morning from my mate Randy. Just thought I'd share it with you in case any of it makes any sense...
Yeah listen - I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen and I just like to stir up debate.
I seriously think the times they are a'changin.
I see a world coming of hundreds of thousands of freely available audio and video shows. Who says any of those shows NEED to get in front of THE MOST eyeballs? After 100 years of mainstream media we have this idea that its a game about GETTING TO THE MOST. But I feel that this is an environment of MANUFACTURED SCARCITY. Kind of like the diamond market.
Who says my podcast needs to be heard by a million people? Why can't it be heard by 50 and still be successful?
Okay so... in a world of BIG BUDGET TV SHOWS, you need to get in front of lots of people to make the economics work. But let me ask you these questions:
- in the next ten years, do you think people at home are going to have LESS technology or MORE technology?
- do you think that technology is going to make it EASIER or HARDER to produce good quality audio and video shows?
- do you think we're going to have LESS broadband or MORE broadband to distribute them over?
- do you think we're going to have LESS devices to play them back on or MORE devices?
And although lots of it will be so niche that it will have a naturally small audience, some of it will be quite popular. There are a LOT of frustrated creative types working in radio, tv and film at the moment, pissed off about the restrictions they are working under, looking for outside creative outlets. How many of those do you think will be producing stuff in their spare time and putting it on the web? Just for fun or to make a name for themselves? What about all of the creative people who NEVER get a geurnsey on commercial networks because their ideas are too left field for the accountants and lawyers running things? What happens when they are unleashed?
So mate... I don't know how it will all turn out, maybe you're right, maybe the guys with the money and the power will find a way to control the chaos ....
but I don't think so... I think that when the Cambrian Explosion happened, it wasn't the biggest animals that necessarily survived.. it was the most efficient and the most adaptive...