PC Magazine and Mike Dunn both cover the state of podcasting

Via Michael Geoghegan's blog I discovered these two recent perspectives on the current state of podcasting:

1. Bill Dyszel from PC Magazine covers both the BlogOn podcasting panel I moderated last week in NY (but I mustn't have said anything interesting because I was the only panel member who didn't get a quote in the article!) as well as the podcasting seminar put on last week by the Producers Guild of America, where JC (no, not the founder of the religion, the founder of the empire), spoke. As usual, he trashed podcasting, saying (according to the article) that he doesn't think it can stand as a profit-making business, but then says "the odds would be better if it involved mobile phones". Well uhhh... DUH Jason.
2. Mike Dunn has also written a fairly detailed report on where he thinks podcasting is at, invoking Geoffrey Moore's chasm, which I think is pretty accurate. I think, however, that we are a long way from crossing the chasm. MP3 players are still nowhere near ubiquitous enough. In a year or two, as people go through their next mobile phone upgrade cycle, the number of mp3 players in circulation will rise from 50 million to 500million +.

My basic approach to building a business around podcasting has always been this:

1. Radio is boring. We need more diversity in programming.

2. Major radio stations in Australia each have about 500,000 listeners.

3. They make good money from advertising.  

4. If we can build a business that reaches as many people as they do, we should be able to make pretty good money as well from advertising but with a fraction of the costs.

I don't see what's so complex about it.

Comments

[Tony]

They could have used your war = geography lesson quote at least.

I am unsure what Peter Rojas would like as a distribution medium for podcasting. At the moment the reason podcasting is so popular is yo don't have to go to different sites to download or stream the content. You can setup your podcatcher to download shows all day no matter whether you are at home or not and then upload to the mp3 player of your choice or listen on your computer.

That is my appeal anyway.

I don't see the fascination with mobile phones as a music player but lots of people are using them. Maybe it's becasue I don't really use mobile phones much.

Anyways I still think your business model as outlined above makes sense in theory and it should work. Not all businesses that have good plans in theory work though. It seems in USA it's a start with the money Adam Curry received from some VC's to help promote his Podshow network. Maybe some Aussie VC will think TPN is worthy of some additional funding to get it up and running.

[mike dunn]

right cam, the addition of podcatch-capable mobiles entering the market over the next few years is a very good point...

we're still way early w/ podcasting and we have a long way to go and much innovation until it peaks...