Doc Searls blew it

Found this history reminder on Podcrawl.

Doc was off. Doc was waaaay off. Doc totally blew it. Doc said:

That last link currently brings up 24 results on Google. A year from now, it will pull up hundreds of thousands, or perhaps even millions.

He was talking, of course, about a Google search for the term "podcasts". He said it on September 28, 2004. One year ago.

How many results does Google return today?

61,100,000

What a year.

As Rexblog says, podcasting will go through a boom/bust cycle. Reality will come back in at some stage. We're counting on it. Our goal is to a build a business with solid fundamentals that will survive the bust and grow into the mainstream adoption phase of the cycle.

What things do you need to do to survive the chasm?

THAT is the $64 question.

Comments

[Richard Giles]

Yeah he had it wrong.

As part of my research for the book, I noted what he said September 30 last year (see here), "podcasting (now up to 526 finds on Google)". In August I searched for "podcasting" and received about 9 million. Today that's almost up to 30 million. So in just over a month it's grown another 20+ million.

[van]

"What things do you need to do to survive the chasm?"

I'd think a blend of professionalism mixed in with a homegrown grassroots feel will help any podcaster succeed online. Netizens - in my experience, anyway - cannot stand overly commercial-feeling productions, but you still need to present some level of charm and a vibrant personality if you're going to reach enough people to make these things worthwhile. So many podcasts are presented by dull geeks droning on about whatever topic they're on the job to present. That's fine for now, but I just can't believe that that recipe is going to be a longterm winner.

That's how I'll be approaching it, anyway.

[Rob Irwin]

What do you need? Simple - loyal listeners. Now, how you get those listeners (eg: quality programs), would also be thought og as things you need, however, at the end of the day it's all about the listeners. No listeners - no interested ad people.

[Hilary]

I remember Googling the term podcast and podcasting back in October and only getting a slim number of results. I believe the Engadget how-to was top of the list.

Of course I have no answer to the $64 question, but I can't wait until we are back down to thousands or even hundreds of quality results. However, when that day comes, I'll have to start a new blog.

[billy pooper]

How do you know it was 61 million?

[Cameron Reilly]

I looked.